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Declan James v Mohamed Elsherbini (Sun 12 Jan 2020)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Declan James: 42,531, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 32,648, level confidence: 68%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Declan James won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 94% better than Mohamed Elsherbini in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 51,917 and Mohamed Elsherbini at a level of 26,745. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +19% and Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +4% and for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 76%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 63%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 43,847, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 31,672, level confidence: 68%.