Ryan Cuskelly v Christopher Gordon (Sun 12 Jan 2020)
Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-4.
Starting level for
Ryan Cuskelly:
44,423, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for
Christopher Gordon:
29,213, level confidence: 64%.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing
52% better than Christopher Gordon.
Ryan Cuskelly won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played
74% better than Christopher Gordon in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Cuskelly actually played at a level of
47,476 and Christopher Gordon at a level of
27,335. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 5.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to +5.5% and Christopher Gordon changes to -3.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +1.6% and for Christopher Gordon becomes -1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 67%, Christopher Gordon: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 62%, Christopher Gordon: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly:
44,800, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Christopher Gordon:
28,984, level confidence: 75%.