Tarek Momen v Marwan Elshorbagy (Mon 13 Jan 2020)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 9-11,16-14,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
64,457, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Marwan Elshorbagy:
51,539, level confidence: 42%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Marwan Elshorbagy.
Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
22% better than Marwan Elshorbagy in this match.
In this case, Tarek Momen played at level 63,031 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tarek Momen would normally have been playing at level 63,404 (based on typical behaviour), Marwan Elshorbagy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to 0% and Marwan Elshorbagy changes to +0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes 0% and for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 78%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 77%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 64%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
64,233, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy:
51,795, level confidence: 64%.