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Saurav Ghosal v Cesar Salazar (Mon 13 Jan 2020)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-2,12-10,5-11,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 53,223, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,587, level confidence: 66%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Cesar Salazar.

Saurav Ghosal won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 10% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

As Saurav Ghosal has played below his allowed range at 48,324, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Saurav Ghosal would normally have been playing at level 52,165 (based on typical behaviour), Cesar Salazar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to -5.1% and Cesar Salazar changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes -1.5% and for Cesar Salazar becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 76%, Cesar Salazar: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 70%, Cesar Salazar: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 52,330, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 42,223, level confidence: 75%.