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James Willstrop v Greg Lobban (Mon 13 Jan 2020)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-1,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 45,604, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 41,607, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Greg Lobban.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 83% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 58,980 and Greg Lobban at a level of 32,171. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +28% and Greg Lobban changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +5.3% and for Greg Lobban becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 69%, Greg Lobban: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 54%, Greg Lobban: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 47,643, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 40,434, level confidence: 71%.