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Gregoire Marche v Zahed Mohamed (Mon 13 Jan 2020)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 12-10,8-11,11-9,8-11,11-6.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 51,878, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 47,095, level confidence: 64%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Gregoire Marche won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 9% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 51,628 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of 47,323. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to -0.4% and Zahed Mohamed changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes -0.1% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 86%, Zahed Mohamed: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 85%, Zahed Mohamed: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 51,694, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 47,253, level confidence: 79%.