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Joel Makin v James Willstrop (Tue 14 Jan 2020)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-7,11-9,10-12,12-10.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 55,735, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,776, level confidence: 53%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 17% better than James Willstrop.

Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 22% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 56,987 and James Willstrop at a level of 46,726. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +1.4% and James Willstrop changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +0.5% and for James Willstrop becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 89%, James Willstrop: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 87%, James Willstrop: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 55,862, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 47,630, level confidence: 71%.