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Juan Camilo Vargas v Jakub Solnicky (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,627, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Jakub Solnicky: 20,669, level confidence: 61%.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Jakub Solnicky.

Juan Camilo Vargas won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 83% better than Jakub Solnicky in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Juan Camilo Vargas actually played at a level of 31,764 and Jakub Solnicky at a level of 17,326. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to +16% and Jakub Solnicky changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes +3.7% and for Jakub Solnicky becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Airport Challenger' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 81%, Jakub Solnicky: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 68%, Jakub Solnicky: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,427, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jakub Solnicky: 20,009, level confidence: 66%.