Tarek Momen v Mostafa Asal (Wed 15 Jan 2020)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-5.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
63,164, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
49,312, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Mostafa Asal.
Tarek Momen won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
120% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of
82,779 and Mostafa Asal at a level of
37,627. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +25% and Mostafa Asal changes to -27%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +4.6% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -5.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 89%, Mostafa Asal: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 68%, Mostafa Asal: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
65,540, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
47,269, level confidence: 65%.