SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mohamed Elshorbagy v Tarek Momen (Fri 17 Jan 2020)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 71,993, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 66,577, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Tarek Momen.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 30% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 78,922 and Tarek Momen at a level of 60,732. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +9.2% and Tarek Momen changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +2.1% and for Tarek Momen becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 85%, Tarek Momen: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 78%, Tarek Momen: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 73,340, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 65,475, level confidence: 80%.