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Alex Cutts v Declan James (Tue 21 Jan 2020)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 4-11,6-11,5-11.

Starting level for Alex Cutts: 10,600, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Declan James: 44,100, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 316% better than Alex Cutts.

Declan James won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 120% better than Alex Cutts in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,284 and 44,100 without affecting his level.

In this case, Declan James played at level 25,700 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 28,323 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Cutts played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to 0% and Alex Cutts changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes 0% and for Alex Cutts becomes +1.9%.

Given Alex Cutts's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Declan James is 0% and for Alex Cutts is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 92%, Alex Cutts: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 67%, Alex Cutts: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Cutts: 10,713, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Declan James: 44,034, level confidence: 67%.