Declan James v Daryl Selby (Wed 22 Jan 2020)
Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-6,8-11,11-3,15-13.
Starting level for
Declan James:
43,780, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Daryl Selby:
37,653, level confidence: 58%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Daryl Selby.
Declan James won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played
29% better than Daryl Selby in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of
46,069 and Daryl Selby at a level of
35,782. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +4.2% and Daryl Selby changes to -4.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +1.3% and for Daryl Selby becomes -1.5%.
Given Declan James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 73% has been applied to his level change.
Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 65% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Declan James is +0.6% and for Daryl Selby is -0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 82%, Daryl Selby: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 78%, Daryl Selby: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Declan James:
43,970, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Daryl Selby:
37,341, level confidence: 72%.