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Fares Dessouky v Campbell Grayson (Sat 25 Jan 2020)

Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 54,470, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 41,027, level confidence: 62%.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Campbell Grayson.

Fares Dessouky won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played 26% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

In this case, Fares Dessouky played at level 52,444 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Fares Dessouky would normally have been playing at level 53,065 (based on typical behaviour), Campbell Grayson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to 0% and Campbell Grayson changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes 0% and for Campbell Grayson becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 84%, Campbell Grayson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 82%, Campbell Grayson: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fares Dessouky: 54,296, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 41,425, level confidence: 77%.