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Saurav Ghosal v Cesar Salazar (Sat 25 Jan 2020)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,415, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 43,258, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Cesar Salazar.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 52% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 57,509 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 37,922. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +12% and Cesar Salazar changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +2.7% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 89%, Cesar Salazar: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 78%, Cesar Salazar: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 51,604, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 42,253, level confidence: 77%.