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Fares Dessouky v Gregoire Marche (Sun 26 Jan 2020)

Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 8-11,11-5,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 54,296, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 51,134, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Gregoire Marche.

Fares Dessouky won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played 34% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of 60,963 and Gregoire Marche at a level of 45,542. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +12% and Gregoire Marche changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +2.6% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 90%, Gregoire Marche: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 80%, Gregoire Marche: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fares Dessouky: 55,562, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 50,005, level confidence: 80%.