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Joel Message v Thomas Knight (Wed 29 Jan 2020)

Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 11-15,13-15,8-15.

Starting level for Joel Message: 1,845, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Thomas Knight: 2,442, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Joel Message.

Thomas Knight won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played 45% better than Joel Message in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas Knight actually played at a level of 2,559 and Joel Message at a level of 1,760. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to +3.8% and Joel Message changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes +2.4% and for Joel Message becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is +1.8% and for Joel Message is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 90%, Joel Message: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 86%, Joel Message: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Message: 1,804, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Thomas Knight: 2,483, level confidence: 86%.