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Oliver Pett v Declan James (Wed 29 Jan 2020)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-9,6-11,6-11,11-8,4-11.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 24,006, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Declan James: 43,929, level confidence: 69%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Oliver Pett.

Declan James won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 15% better than Oliver Pett in this match.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 31,134, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 39,705 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Pett played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -8.3% and Oliver Pett changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -2.1% and for Oliver Pett becomes +3.5%.

Given Declan James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 73% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 46% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Declan James is -0.9% and for Oliver Pett is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 83%, Oliver Pett: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 66%, Oliver Pett: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 24,398, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Declan James: 43,470, level confidence: 66%.