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Declan James v Miles Jenkins (Thu 30 Jan 2020)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-9,11-8,6-11,11-9.

Starting level for Declan James: 43,470, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 22,149, level confidence: 61%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Miles Jenkins.

Declan James won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 19% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 33,874 and 43,470 without affecting his level.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 29,822, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 38,373 (based on typical behaviour), Miles Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -8.7% and Miles Jenkins changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -2.2% and for Miles Jenkins becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Edinburgh Sports Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 81%, Miles Jenkins: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 63%, Miles Jenkins: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 42,506, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins: 22,994, level confidence: 61%.