Faraz Khan v Patrick Rooney (Thu 30 Jan 2020)
Match won by Faraz Khan. Result: 11-8,6-11,10-12,11-5,11-6.
Starting level for
Faraz Khan:
22,019, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
36,843, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
67% better than Faraz Khan.
Faraz Khan won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Faraz Khan played
12% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Faraz Khan actually played at a level of
30,098 and Patrick Rooney at a level of
26,953. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Faraz Khan changes to +27% and Patrick Rooney changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Faraz Khan becomes +6% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Em Noll Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Faraz Khan: 69%, Patrick Rooney: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Faraz Khan: 50%, Patrick Rooney: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Faraz Khan:
23,309, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
35,702, level confidence: 65%.