Todd Harrity v Joeri Hapers (Thu 30 Jan 2020)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
35,863, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Joeri Hapers:
21,215, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
69% better than Joeri Hapers.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
120% better than Joeri Hapers in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
40,913 and Joeri Hapers at a level of
18,597. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.7% and 10.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +9.3% and Joeri Hapers changes to -10.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +2.4% and for Joeri Hapers becomes -2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Em Noll Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 94%, Joeri Hapers: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 83%, Joeri Hapers: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
36,470, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Joeri Hapers:
20,805, level confidence: 77%.