Todd Harrity v Jaymie Haycocks (Fri 31 Jan 2020)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-1.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
36,470, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
25,155, level confidence: 55%.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
45% better than Jaymie Haycocks.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
313% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
61,517 and Jaymie Haycocks at a level of
14,913. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 69% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 54% and 54% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +37% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to -54%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +6.9% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -10.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Em Noll Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Todd Harrity is limited to +5.4% and Jaymie Haycocks is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 91%, Jaymie Haycocks: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 54%, Jaymie Haycocks: 44%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
38,454, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
23,962, level confidence: 44%.