Nicolas Mueller v Cédric Kuchen (Sun 02 Feb 2020)
Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 11-6,11-1,11-3.
Starting level for
Nicolas Mueller:
37,742, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Cédric Kuchen:
21,286, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing
77% better than Cédric Kuchen.
Nicolas Mueller won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played
230% better than Cédric Kuchen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of
51,489 and Cédric Kuchen at a level of
15,603. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +26% and Cédric Kuchen changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +5.2% and for Cédric Kuchen becomes -4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Sihltal Cup 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 75%, Cédric Kuchen: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 55%, Cédric Kuchen: 66%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller:
39,282, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Cédric Kuchen:
20,615, level confidence: 66%.