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Juan Camilo Vargas v Omar Marei (Thu 06 Feb 2020)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 11-4,6-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 28,783, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Omar Marei: 13,387, level confidence: 63%.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 115% better than Omar Marei.

Juan Camilo Vargas won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 30% better than Omar Marei in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Juan Camilo Vargas was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,128 and 28,783 without affecting his level.

As Juan Camilo Vargas has played below his allowed range at 19,154, his level reduction is 10.3% before damping. On the assumption that Juan Camilo Vargas would normally have been playing at level 24,660 (based on typical behaviour), Omar Marei played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -5.8% and Omar Marei changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -1.8% and for Omar Marei becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Atlanta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 87%, Omar Marei: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 67%, Omar Marei: 62%.

Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 28,281, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Omar Marei: 13,865, level confidence: 62%.