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Juan Camilo Vargas v Henrik Mustonen (Fri 07 Feb 2020)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 28,235, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Henrik Mustonen: 25,414, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Henrik Mustonen.

Juan Camilo Vargas won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 19% better than Henrik Mustonen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Juan Camilo Vargas actually played at a level of 29,265 and Henrik Mustonen at a level of 24,519. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to +3.5% and Henrik Mustonen changes to -2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes +1.3% and for Henrik Mustonen becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Atlanta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 82%, Henrik Mustonen: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 79%, Henrik Mustonen: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 28,482, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Henrik Mustonen: 25,191, level confidence: 86%.