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Baptiste Masotti v Adrien Douillard (Sun 09 Feb 2020)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-2,11-0,11-3.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,952, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Adrien Douillard: 9,514, level confidence: 34%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 299% better than Adrien Douillard.

Baptiste Masotti won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 560% better than Adrien Douillard in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of 48,817 and Adrien Douillard at a level of 7,397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +9.6% and Adrien Douillard changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +2.4% and for Adrien Douillard becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 69%, Adrien Douillard: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 54%, Adrien Douillard: 45%.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 38,855, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Adrien Douillard: 9,145, level confidence: 45%.