Baptiste Masotti v Adrien Douillard (Sun 09 Feb 2020)
Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-2,11-0,11-3.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
37,952, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Adrien Douillard:
9,514, level confidence: 34%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing
299% better than Adrien Douillard.
Baptiste Masotti won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played
560% better than Adrien Douillard in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of
48,817 and Adrien Douillard at a level of
7,397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +9.6% and Adrien Douillard changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +2.4% and for Adrien Douillard becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 69%, Adrien Douillard: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 54%, Adrien Douillard: 45%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
38,855, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Adrien Douillard:
9,145, level confidence: 45%.