Fabien Verseille v Baptiste Masotti (Mon 10 Feb 2020)
Match won by Fabien Verseille. Result: 11-8,3-11,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Fabien Verseille:
24,352, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
39,169, level confidence: 53%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing
61% better than Fabien Verseille.
Fabien Verseille won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fabien Verseille played
20% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fabien Verseille actually played at a level of
33,797 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of
28,223. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fabien Verseille changes to +29% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -26%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fabien Verseille becomes +6.2% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fabien Verseille: 70%, Baptiste Masotti: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fabien Verseille: 50%, Baptiste Masotti: 53%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Fabien Verseille:
25,843, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
37,342, level confidence: 53%.