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Christopher Gordon v Todd Harrity (Wed 12 Feb 2020)

Match won by Christopher Gordon. Result: 13-11,12-10,13-11.

Starting level for Christopher Gordon: 29,520, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 36,232, level confidence: 65%.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Christopher Gordon.

Christopher Gordon won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Christopher Gordon played 31% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Christopher Gordon actually played at a level of 37,391 and Todd Harrity at a level of 28,605. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Christopher Gordon changes to +22% and Todd Harrity changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Christopher Gordon becomes +4.7% and for Todd Harrity becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Oregon Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Christopher Gordon: 84%, Todd Harrity: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Christopher Gordon: 66%, Todd Harrity: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Christopher Gordon: 30,844, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 34,669, level confidence: 64%.