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Leandro Romiglio v Juan Camilo Vargas (Wed 12 Feb 2020)

Match won by Leandro Romiglio. Result: 5-11,5-11,12-10,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Leandro Romiglio: 24,757, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 28,990, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Leandro Romiglio.

Leandro Romiglio won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leandro Romiglio played 7% better than Juan Camilo Vargas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leandro Romiglio actually played at a level of 27,705 and Juan Camilo Vargas at a level of 25,906. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leandro Romiglio changes to +11% and Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -9.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leandro Romiglio becomes +2.8% and for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carter Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leandro Romiglio: 84%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leandro Romiglio: 75%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leandro Romiglio: 25,421, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 28,281, level confidence: 79%.