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Charlie Lee v James Willstrop (Thu 13 Feb 2020)

Retired pro result: Charlie Lee[48097]. Match type: AJ Bell National Championships 2020. Last pro match: 2018-11-27 19:00:00. Now: 2020-02-13 15:00:00. Days since: 443
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 4-11,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 26,159, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,494, level confidence: 63%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Charlie Lee.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 94% better than Charlie Lee in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 49,109 and Charlie Lee at a level of 25,299. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +2.5% and Charlie Lee changes to -2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +0.9% and for Charlie Lee becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 79%, Charlie Lee: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 77%, Charlie Lee: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 26,138, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 47,457, level confidence: 77%.