Saurav Ghosal v Rutvik Rau (Thu 13 Feb 2020)
Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-1.
Starting level for
Saurav Ghosal:
50,129, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Rutvik Rau:
10,806, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing
364% better than Rutvik Rau.
Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played
371% better than Rutvik Rau in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of
50,534 and Rutvik Rau at a level of
10,719. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +0.4% and Rutvik Rau changes to -0.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +0.1% and for Rutvik Rau becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for '77th SRFI National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 80%, Rutvik Rau: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 79%, Rutvik Rau: 88%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal:
50,198, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Rutvik Rau:
10,790, level confidence: 88%.