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Saurav Ghosal v Rutvik Rau (Thu 13 Feb 2020)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-1.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,129, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Rutvik Rau: 10,806, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 364% better than Rutvik Rau.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 371% better than Rutvik Rau in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 50,534 and Rutvik Rau at a level of 10,719. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +0.4% and Rutvik Rau changes to -0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +0.1% and for Rutvik Rau becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for '77th SRFI National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 80%, Rutvik Rau: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 79%, Rutvik Rau: 88%.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,198, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Rutvik Rau: 10,790, level confidence: 88%.